Modeling choice and search in decisions from experience: A sequential sampling approach

نویسندگان

  • Douglas Markant
  • Timothy J. Pleskac
  • Adele Diederich
  • Thorsten Pachur
  • Ralph Hertwig
چکیده

In decisions from experience (DFE), people sample from two or more lotteries prior to making a consequential choice. Although existing models can account for how sampled experiences relate to choice, they don’t explain decisions about how to search (in particular, when to stop sampling information). We propose that both choice and search behavior in this context can be understood as a sequential sampling process whereby decision makers sequentially accumulate outcome information from each option to form a preference for one alternative over the other. We formalize this process in a new model, Choice from Accumulated Samples of Experience (CHASE). The model provides a good account of choice behavior and goes beyond existing models by explaining variations in sample size under different task conditions. This approach offers a process-level framework for understanding how interactions between the choice environment and properties of the decision maker give rise to decisions from experience.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

How short- and long-run aspirations impact search and choice in decisions from experience.

To what extent do people adapt their information search policies and subsequent decisions to the long- and short-run consequences of choice environments? To address this question, we investigated exploration and exploitation policies in choice environments that involved single or multiple plays. We further compared behavior in these environments with behavior in the standard sampling paradigm. ...

متن کامل

Rapid decisions from experience.

In many everyday decisions, people quickly integrate noisy samples of information to form a preference among alternatives that offer uncertain rewards. Here, we investigated this decision process using the Flash Gambling Task (FGT), in which participants made a series of choices between a certain payoff and an uncertain alternative that produced a normal distribution of payoffs. For each choice...

متن کامل

The role of cognitive abilities in decisions from experience: Age differences emerge as a function of choice set size.

People seldom enjoy access to summarized information about risky options before making a decision. Instead, they may search for information and learn about environmental contingencies-thus making decisions from experience. Aging is associated with notable deficits in learning and memory-but do these translate into poorer decisions from experience? We report three studies that used a sampling pa...

متن کامل

P/E Modeling and Prediction of Firms Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange; a New Approach to Harmony Search Algorithm and Neural Network Hybridization

Investors and other contributors to stock exchange need a variety of tools, measures, and information in order to make decisions. One of the most common tools and criteria of decision makers is price-to earnings per share ratio. As a result, investors are in pursuit of ways to have a better assessment and forecast of price and dividends and get the highest returns on their investment. Previous ...

متن کامل

Modeling sampling duration in decisions from experience

Cognitive models of choice almost universally implicate sequential evidence accumulation as a fundamental element of the mechanism by which preferences are formed. When to stop evidence accumulation is an important question that such models do not currently try to answer. We present the first cognitive model that accurately predicts stopping decisions in individual economic decisions-from-exper...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015